Bitcoin analyst sees ‚aggressive‘ bull run towards $64,000 – here’s why
Bitcoin prices could see an aggressive bull run in the coming sessions, with upside price targets lurking somewhere between $60,000 and $64,000.
The bullish analogy comes from TradingShot, an independent analytics firm known for accurately predicting the last bitcoin close above $50,000.
Their analyst noted that BTC/USD has been trading within an Bitcoin Future ascending channel defined by an upper trendline resistance, a middle, lower trendline support.
He discovered a fractal pattern. Lately, bitcoin typically pulls back after testing the channel’s upper trendline to test the median line as support („Bullish for BTC: Bitcoin miners are accumulating now – instead of selling“).
Later, the cryptocurrency breaks out bearishly towards the channel’s lower trendline – the so-called „support base“ – before retracing its move upwards to test the median again – this time as resistance.
In 2021, Bitcoin is repeating the fractal. The cryptocurrency has just bounced off support after correcting 21 percent from the channel’s upper trendline above $58,000. Meanwhile, it is now testing the median line (coupled with the 50-4H moving average wave) as resistance.
The TradingShot analyst comments: A successful break above the median line would put Bitcoin on track to test the channel’s upper trendline. It could also happen if the cryptocurrency’s relative strength indicator forms higher lows, indicating room for further accumulation on any downside attempt.
„All parameters suggest that price, based on this channel up, has most likely found its medium-term support,“ the analyst said. „If the 4H MA50, but more importantly the median of the channel, is broken, an aggressive path towards the $60-64 zone could open up.
„However,“ he adds, „if price is rejected at or below the median, the support base will most likely be retested where consolidation below the median may follow for about 10 days until it is breached.“
TrdingShot’s analogy appears in the wake of Bitcoin’s relentless uptrend since the start of the coronavirus pandemic. The cryptocurrency rose from a low of $3,858 in March 2020 to a high of $58,367 in February 2021 – an increase of more than 1,200 per cent in just 11 months.
At the core of the bitcoin price rally was the US Federal Reserve, with its near-zero interest rates and unlimited bond-buying policy. The dovish programmes forced down US government bond yields, prompting investors to move their capital into far riskier markets.
Meanwhile, the prospect of Fed quantitative easing, coupled with the US government’s trillion-dollar stimulus, pushed the US dollar index down more than 12 per cent. All this helped Bitcoin, a non-interest-bearing asset with a limited supply cap of 21 million.
Investors flocked to the cryptocurrency after assessing its gold-like anti-inflation properties.
As a result, BTC/USD boomed, supported by a wave of adoption that saw companies such as Tesla, MicroStrategy, Square and others add billions of dollars worth of BTC to their balance sheets.
But an overzealous influx of capital into the bitcoin market has also heightened fears that it is a bubble. Many analysts fear the cryptocurrency deserves a major downward correction to neutralise its overvalued level.
The worries have continued to grow as bond yields recover to pre-pandemic levels, making Treasurys attractive enough to hold.
„That’s because when yields go on a run, money will flow into government bonds, which also means the US Dollar Index (DXY),“ explains Ben Lilly, an independent cryptocurrency analyst. „Both of these types of flows can hurt bitcoin and crypto, as we saw late last week.“